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The critical role that pilots take part in the inland navigation has been widely recognized, emphasizing the great importance to conduct pilotage safety analysis. This paper analyzes Human Error Probability (HEP) of pilot’s operation in the Changshu section of the Yangtze River. Firstly, a detailed hazard analysis is conducted to derive the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Then, the HEP of the pilot’s operation is calculated by using the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM). Four tasks of pilot’s operation are examined, which are Navigation, Crossing the channel, Berthing operation, and Departure. In each task, the HEP of sub-tasks are quantified based on experts’ judgement, and the highest and lowest HEPs of sub-tasks are identified. The results shed light on the management of pilotage safety in the downstream of the Yangtze River.

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Human Error Probability Analysis on Pilot’s Operation in Changshu Section of the Yangtze River

  • 会议论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Haoxuan Yan,
  • Cunlong Fan,
  • Linglong Yan,
  • Min Wang,
  • Yongtao Xi,
  • Shenping Hu,
  • Bing Han

摘要

The critical role that pilots take part in the inland navigation has been widely recognized, emphasizing the great importance to conduct pilotage safety analysis. This paper analyzes Human Error Probability (HEP) of pilot’s operation in the Changshu section of the Yangtze River. Firstly, a detailed hazard analysis is conducted to derive the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs). Then, the HEP of the pilot’s operation is calculated by using the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM). Four tasks of pilot’s operation are examined, which are Navigation, Crossing the channel, Berthing operation, and Departure. In each task, the HEP of sub-tasks are quantified based on experts’ judgement, and the highest and lowest HEPs of sub-tasks are identified. The results shed light on the management of pilotage safety in the downstream of the Yangtze River.