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The opening of the Northeast Arctic route allows the rich oil and gas resources in the Arctic region to be easily transported to Asian and European countries, and the navigation safety of LNG carriers needs to be guaranteed. In order to effectively reduce the navigation risk of LNG carriers in Arctic waters, a Bayesian network model of risk evolution based on accident scenario analysis is proposed. By combining subjective and objective data sources, the collision risks with LNG carriers in the five seas of the Arctic Chukchi Sea, Eastern Siberia Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea is assessed. Based on Bayesian evidence reasoning, the main risk causation paths of LNG carrier traffic accidents in Arctic waters are analyzed. Results show that the collision risk of LNG carriers in the East Siberian Sea is the highest among the five waters, with a quantitative value of 0.062. In addition, the collision risk of LNG carriers on the Northeast Arctic route is most likely to come from human and the environment. There are three main risk causation paths, and the corresponding risk management strategy can be carried by cutting off these risk transmission paths.

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Risk Analysis of LNG Ship Collision Accident in Arctic Waters Based on Bayesian Network

  • 会议论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Zhuang Li,
  • Haoran Jiang,
  • Xiaoming Zhu,
  • Hongbo Wang,
  • Kaixian Gao

摘要

The opening of the Northeast Arctic route allows the rich oil and gas resources in the Arctic region to be easily transported to Asian and European countries, and the navigation safety of LNG carriers needs to be guaranteed. In order to effectively reduce the navigation risk of LNG carriers in Arctic waters, a Bayesian network model of risk evolution based on accident scenario analysis is proposed. By combining subjective and objective data sources, the collision risks with LNG carriers in the five seas of the Arctic Chukchi Sea, Eastern Siberia Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea and Barents Sea is assessed. Based on Bayesian evidence reasoning, the main risk causation paths of LNG carrier traffic accidents in Arctic waters are analyzed. Results show that the collision risk of LNG carriers in the East Siberian Sea is the highest among the five waters, with a quantitative value of 0.062. In addition, the collision risk of LNG carriers on the Northeast Arctic route is most likely to come from human and the environment. There are three main risk causation paths, and the corresponding risk management strategy can be carried by cutting off these risk transmission paths.