Brazil, BRICS, and the South Atlantic Stage: Reflections and Perspectives on Brazilian Foreign Policy
摘要
This chapter approaches Brazil’s strategies amidst BRICS’ recent enlargement, analysing how the group’s expansion affects Brazilian endeavours in the current geopolitical global order. We focus on the South Atlantic dimension by highlighting shared dilemmas faced by Brazil and South Africa in the context of the group’s expansion. Our work is guided by three intertwined research questions: (i) How does BRICS enlargement affect geopolitical imaginaries of world order? (ii) What are the implications of such enlargement for Brazilian foreign policy? (iii) How has Brazilian foreign policy tried to respond to the group’s expansion? Aiming to build a response to each one of these questions, we articulate a theoretical and conceptual framework composed of critical geopolitics and the “graduation dilemma” proposition. Critical geopolitics allows us to analyse the geopolitical lenses through which Brazil envisages world order, setting the basis for understanding how BRICS has been placed in Brazilian foreign policy. The graduation dilemma concept offers specific indicators regarding foreign policy analysis of second-tier and non-nuclear states, such as Brazil and South Africa, helping us apprehend the country’s responses to the expansion of the BRICS. Our analysis mainly relies on a qualitative methodological approach—especially literature review, documental research, and qualitative content analysis. Quantitative data and analysis play a secondary role through demonstrative trade and investment flow statistics. We also refer to V-Dem’s liberal democracy quantitative index on each BRICS member, as we find it helpful in understanding the current dilemmas the group presents to democracy credentials and defence in Brazilian foreign policy. We argue that BRICS’ expansion reinforces the placement of the group beyond its geoeconomic origins, leaning into a geopolitical-defying tone regarding the current liberal political order, especially regarding its liberal democracy pillar. Given the current authocratisation tendencies domestically and worldwide, this poses a formidable challenge to Brazilian foreign policy with repercussions on both external and domestic levels. Consequently, the BRICS enlargement imposes a challenge on Brazil’s geopolitical reading of the world order. Brazil must still navigate its graduation dilemma while advocating for a more equal—and democratic—world order. However, the traditional North–South reading of world order is now faced with civilisational debates regarding liberal and democratic values. Finally, we place the South Atlantic as a strategic space where Brazil and South Africa—both non-nuclear regional powers—have tried to join efforts in responding to the dilemmas raised by BRICS’ expansion. We argue that the reactivation of IBSA (India, Brazil, and South Africa)—a multilateral forum composed only of emerging countries considered “democratic”—is a possible, though somewhat controversial, response to this delicate conjecture.