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India is the world’s sixth-largest economy and has witnessed remarkable economic growth over few decades considering economic crisis and Covid-19 impact. The objective of the project is to analyze historical trends from the year 1985–2023; doing time series forecasting using ARIMA and PROPHET model from the year 2024–34 for 13 indicators; doing back testing is also done to check the accuracy of the forecasts. Through E-Views, the ADF test was done and all indicators achieved stationarity conditions. Lower the MAPE value, forecasts will be more accurate. Forecasts for 2024–2034 were generated and visualization is done by doing model comparisons with actual and predicted values. First 12 indicators showed a minimum MAPE nearer to 30%. The final step was to conduct a final interpretation for trade balance indicator, the ES model showed good promise for forecasting with a SMAPE of 1.78. However, the RMSE of 33.99 is slightly higher compared to time series models which gives room for improvement. After doing ES versus ARIMA versus PROPHET comparison, ES appears to be the most favorable model for trade balance indicator.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Indian Economic Growth Indicators Using ARIMA and PROPHET

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Muhammad Naseem,
  • N. Asok Kumar

摘要

India is the world’s sixth-largest economy and has witnessed remarkable economic growth over few decades considering economic crisis and Covid-19 impact. The objective of the project is to analyze historical trends from the year 1985–2023; doing time series forecasting using ARIMA and PROPHET model from the year 2024–34 for 13 indicators; doing back testing is also done to check the accuracy of the forecasts. Through E-Views, the ADF test was done and all indicators achieved stationarity conditions. Lower the MAPE value, forecasts will be more accurate. Forecasts for 2024–2034 were generated and visualization is done by doing model comparisons with actual and predicted values. First 12 indicators showed a minimum MAPE nearer to 30%. The final step was to conduct a final interpretation for trade balance indicator, the ES model showed good promise for forecasting with a SMAPE of 1.78. However, the RMSE of 33.99 is slightly higher compared to time series models which gives room for improvement. After doing ES versus ARIMA versus PROPHET comparison, ES appears to be the most favorable model for trade balance indicator.