Hospitals need to forecast the demand for healthcare services to manage resources and provide services effectively. This research paper focuses on forecasting the demand for commonly used medicines in the healthcare centre of a technical university. Historical data on medicines is collected to determine the pattern of demand for medicines. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is identified to be the forecasting model for predicting demand. The performance of the ARIMA model is evaluated using various measures to determine the accuracy of the forecasts. This research highlights the need for accurate demand prediction in healthcare establishments. Hospitals can utilize the suggested methodology to accurately forecast and manage fluctuations in demand, resulting in enhanced patient care and more effective allocation of resources.

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Demand Forecasting of a Medicine at a Technical University’s Healthcare Centre

  • Sourabh Ghaghre,
  • R. Sridharan,
  • C. R. Vishnu

摘要

Hospitals need to forecast the demand for healthcare services to manage resources and provide services effectively. This research paper focuses on forecasting the demand for commonly used medicines in the healthcare centre of a technical university. Historical data on medicines is collected to determine the pattern of demand for medicines. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is identified to be the forecasting model for predicting demand. The performance of the ARIMA model is evaluated using various measures to determine the accuracy of the forecasts. This research highlights the need for accurate demand prediction in healthcare establishments. Hospitals can utilize the suggested methodology to accurately forecast and manage fluctuations in demand, resulting in enhanced patient care and more effective allocation of resources.