Small pelagic fishes (SPF) play a crucial role in marine ecosystems by facilitating trophic energy transfer and maintaining food chain linkages. SPF provides food security and supports the livelyhood of coastal communities through fishing (and related) industries such as fish meat, oil, and fishmeal production. However, SPFs, including sardines, are increasingly affected by overfishing and climate change, resulting in population fluctuations, distributional shifts, and often mass mortality events, particularly following extreme climate events, disrupting their ecological roles and functions. India, particularly the southwestern states, has historically contributed significantly to global sardine landings. However, recent observations indicate notable shifts in sardine landings, prompting a decadal analysis of their distribution in Indian waters. An evaluation of sardine landing data from 1985 to 2023 revealed a noticeable relationship between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and oil sardine catches in the primary sardine-landing states: Kerala and Karnataka. Higher oil sardine landings in these states were associated with strong La Niña events (negative ONI), while declines in landings were linked to prolonged El Niño periods (positive ONI). An inverse relationship was also observed between oil sardines and lesser sardines. For instance, during 1989–1999, oil sardine landings declined in both Kerala and Karnataka, whereas lesser sardine landings were comparatively higher. Conversely, between 2000 and 2012, oil sardine landings increased while lesser sardine landings decreased. The decline phase of oil sardines corresponded with prolonged positive ONI periods, while the recovery phase coincided with intense La Niña events. In contrast, high landings of lesser sardines were often associated with strong El Niño periods or sustained positive ONI before their peak landing years. Spatial distribution patterns of oil sardine catches revealed alternating phases of decline and rise between India’s eastern and western coasts. Notably, during reduced oil sardine landings along the Kerala and Karnataka coasts, a concurrent increase in landings was observed in the eastern states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These shifts suggest that climate change, including prolonged El Niño conditions, often renders the western coast less favorable for oil sardines while creating more suitable conditions along the eastern coast, facilitating their migration and proliferation in these areas. Therefore, efforts must address the irreversible tipping points in ecosystem functioning and significant fluctuation of oil sardine fishery driven by climate change. This requires programmatically focused and synergetic actions involving scientific research, policy interventions, and active engagement of stakeholders.