Climate Change and Invasive Species: Suitability of Acacia auriculiformis in Kasaragod District, Kerala
摘要
Invasive alien species (IAS) are any non-native species that extend out of their natural habitat and threaten the native biodiversity of that new ecosystem. The increase in human population, improved facilities for trade and transport, and degradation of natural habitats have facilitated invasion. Climate change, another cause for creating an imbalance in ecosystems, has indirectly or directly accelerated the invasion. Acacia auriculiformis is a plantation crop introduced to the tropics in the twentieth century, which continues to be sustained in our country as an invasive species. The study used the Maximum Entropy model to identify the current and future distribution of Acacia auriculiformis in the Kasaragod district and the major factors influencing its habitat suitability. The research identified that a decrease in temperature seasonality, an increase in mean temperature in the wettest quarter, and precipitation in the coldest quarter will increase the probability of the species’ presence and pose a greater threat to native biodiversity. The Shared Socio-economic pathways (SSPs) 245 and 585 represent future global warming under current and higher greenhouse gas emission conditions, respectively. The projection of habitat suitability for both the future climate change scenarios inferred that the suitability of Kasaragod district for the species will decrease. However, the adaptability of invasives to harsh climatic conditions draws our attention to Ranipuram National Park, which will provide moderately suitable conditions for the species in future. Thus, this study calls for immediate restoration and conservation efforts in this biodiversity-rich area; as previous research has proved, an area with healthy natural vegetation is less prone to invasion.