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Climate change affects the world’s ecosystems, posing severe challenges for scientists, environmentalists, and policymakers. Anacardium occidentale L., a plant of the Anacardiaceae family, is both ecologically and commercially significant due to its high drought resistance. However, the features of habitat distribution and the primary environmental factors influencing its appropriateness are little understood in Togo. Using 2538 occurrence data and 17 soil and environmental parameters, HadGEM3-GC3.1-L and MIROC6 models were used to predict current and future appropriate habitats under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) by 2070. The results show that soil, followed by yearly precipitation (bio12) and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the most important environmental variables influencing A. occidentale’s regional spread. MaxEnt projected that very advantageous habitats for A. occidentale would decrease, while less favorable, moderately favorable, and unfavorable habitat areas would increase. Furthermore, under two temperature change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), Togo would have essentially no possible appropriate habitat for A. occidentale by 2070. Our findings might be used to develop a climate-resilient cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) agriculture plan in Togo, helping to preserve and conserve this species.

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MaxEnt’s Forecast of Climate Change’s Effect on Habitat Suitability of Anacardium occidentale L. in Togo (West Africa)

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Kossi-Messan Jacques Agboka,
  • Dodiomon Soro,
  • Komi Agboka,
  • Wouyo Atakpama

摘要

Climate change affects the world’s ecosystems, posing severe challenges for scientists, environmentalists, and policymakers. Anacardium occidentale L., a plant of the Anacardiaceae family, is both ecologically and commercially significant due to its high drought resistance. However, the features of habitat distribution and the primary environmental factors influencing its appropriateness are little understood in Togo. Using 2538 occurrence data and 17 soil and environmental parameters, HadGEM3-GC3.1-L and MIROC6 models were used to predict current and future appropriate habitats under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) by 2070. The results show that soil, followed by yearly precipitation (bio12) and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the most important environmental variables influencing A. occidentale’s regional spread. MaxEnt projected that very advantageous habitats for A. occidentale would decrease, while less favorable, moderately favorable, and unfavorable habitat areas would increase. Furthermore, under two temperature change scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), Togo would have essentially no possible appropriate habitat for A. occidentale by 2070. Our findings might be used to develop a climate-resilient cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) agriculture plan in Togo, helping to preserve and conserve this species.