Europe and the Indo-Pacific: Current Crossroads and Future Outlooks
摘要
Europe’s unfolding approach to the Indo-Pacific stands out as a significant and underexplored international development. Starting from this book’s novel investigation of its recent involvement, as well as the main implications resulting from it, this chapter revisits this volume’s key premises, goals, and findings, prior to assessing three current crossroads that Europe is facing and three potential future outlooks it might experience in the future. The former are: (i) to maintain the ongoing positive trend in terms of relations with the Indo-Pacific or to be overwhelmed by growing instability close to home; (ii) to produce new Indo-Pacific policies and update existing ones in a complementary, mutually-reinforcing manner, or to revert to individual national approaches, adding to the region’s strategic uncertainty; and (iii) to use its renewed Indo-Pacific engagement to foster European strategic autonomy—which in this instance is complementary to the objectives of the US and its regional allies—or to continue to look at the US as the key policy proponent. Among potential future outlooks, the chapter focuses on the following. First, a best-case scenario in which Europe’s goals are gradually fulfilled. Second, a worst-case scenario in which endogenous and exogenous elements contribute to the failure of Europe’s Indo-Pacific endeavour. Third, a “messy middle” scenario—the most likely one—in which European regional engagement continues, albeit in a fragmented and non-coherent manner. By summarising the book’s main elements, as well as by assessing key crossroads and potential future outlooks, this chapter contributes to growing debates on both European and Indo-Pacific security landscapes.