Probability Analysis of Railway Operation Safety Risk

Safety assessment is one of the most important approaches to ensure the safety of railway transportation. It can make technicians integrally know the rope of railway and the whole system, so as to correct the current state seasonably and make certain that the entire process is in a protected and governable situation. In this paper, we establish Fuzzy Bow-tie Model through risk factor and accident consequences, each fundamental events’ evaluation is attained by specialist evaluation method, and these outcomes are converted into Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers. In the second place, these figures are aggregated into single fuzzy number by Arithmetic Mean Method, and then the fuzzy number is transformed into the probability by Centroid Method. At this moment, we can acquire each events’ fuzzy failure probability. Finally, Bayesian Network is used to dynamically update the risk probability and reduce the probability of underreporting of incidents in order to prevent accidents in advance.