Research and Application of Natural Gas Production Prediction Models Under the Influence of Internal and External Factors

The development of natural gas production in the medium and long term is influenced by multiple internal and external factors such as resources, production capacity, investment, gas prices, and mining rights policies. To achieve high-precision prediction of production development goals in the Sichuan Basin, researchers improved the model based on traditional BP neural network methods by introducing control items, making the neural network model suitable for the characteristics of the natural gas industry. It can predict production development trends influenced by internal factors such as resources and production capacity, as well as external factors such as investment, gas prices, and mining rights reduction policies. The results indicate that: (1) Through trend analysis of production forecast results and error analysis of investment forecast results, the improved BP neural network model has been verified to have high accuracy, which is in line with the development trend of production planning. (2) Under the influence of mining rights policies, the production of southwest oil and gas fields in the Sichuan Basin is expected to reach 684–752 × 108 m3 by 2035; Under different investment policies, the output in 2035 will reach 633–791 × 108 m3. In summary, based on the improved BP neural network model, the introduction of internal and external influencing factors for production forecasting can provide reliable data support for the formulation and optimization of medium and long-term production plans for companies under different development strategies.