Fluctuating Populism: Prabowo’s Everchanging Populism Across the Indonesian Elections

“Fluctuating populism,” exemplified by Prabowo Subianto, the winner of the 2024 Indonesian presidential election and a career politician of more than three decades, refers to the strategic adjustment of populist rhetoric and ideological messaging across different campaigns in pursuit of electoral victory. Across the 2009, 2014, 2019, and 2024 presidential elections, Prabowo repeatedly shifted his ideological stances, rhetorical appeals, and electoral strategies: evolving from an ultra-nationalist, chauvinist, and Islamist populist into a more technocratic figure with a markedly softer public persona. At no point did he fully commit to a single, stable ideology or narrative; instead, his profile fluctuated in response to Indonesia’s changing political landscape. Prabowo’s success in 2024 highlights the effectiveness of such fluctuating populism and suggests that it offers a useful framework for understanding how populist leaders recalibrate their appeals over time, with clear implications for comparative studies of political leadership.