Assessment of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Uttarakhand Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Glacial lake outburst floods are a serious hydrometeorological hazard in the rapidly changing Himalayan landscape. This study evaluates the GLOF hazard potential of Kedar Tal, a high-altitude glacier lake in the Gangotri Region of Uttarakhand, India. Multi-temporal satellite imagery (Landsat 5, Sentinel-2) and digital elevation models (SRTM) were utilized to assess lake expansion, terrain attributes, and surface water connectivity to downstream channels. Possible triggering factors were assessed datasets such as USGS seismic records and GPM rainfall were integrated. The lake’s area expanded by 53.71% between 1998 and 2025, according to the results and the surrounding slopes are steeper than 35°–50°, indicating a high risk of avalanches and landslides. Although there has never been a GLOF at Kedar Tal, the environmental factors that have existed over time suggest that there is a moderate to high chance of one. The research suggests the incorporation of Kedar Tal in regional early warning and disaster mitigation plans emphasizes the need of early detection and risk assessment for lesser-studied Himalayan glacial lakes.