The Future of Gulf Finance: Converging Signals from Fintech and Green Markets

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between fintech innovation, green finance, and financial market behaviour in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies. Employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model alongside topic modelling of official green finance frameworks, we examine how fintech-related assets, particularly blockchain and digital finance indices, interact with green finance indicators, commodity markets, and regional stock indices. Results reveal an intensification of cross-domain connectedness, with fintech and clean energy indices emerging as influential volatility transmitters across GCC markets. Static and dynamic connectedness measures indicate structural reconfiguration in systemic risk transmission, while regression analysis confirms the increasing explanatory power of fintech and green assets relative to conventional drivers. A complementary textual analysis of policy frameworks reveals consistent references to transparency, ESG governance, digital infrastructure, and technological ambition, indicating a strategic integration of fintech into sustainable finance architectures. Together, these findings provide novel evidence of convergence between digital and green financial domains in the region, with implications for financial diversification, regulatory coordination, and the future design of climate-aligned investment systems.