Promoting Synergistic Development of Overseas Infrastructure Supply: A Case Study of Zambia

This chapter examines whether transport infrastructure drives economic development in Zambia, a landlocked, copper-dependent country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining high-resolution satellite imagery, nighttime light data, Demographic and Health Survey data, and field interviews, the study finds that road improvements significantly expanded urban built-up areas and attracted population growth, yet failed to generate corresponding economic gains, a pattern termed “urbanization without growth.” Road upgrades were associated with declining per-capita living standards, increased overcrowding, and worsened air quality in major cities. The chapter attributes these outcomes to Zambia’s weak industrial base, urban congestion, politicized infrastructure planning, and the absence of complementary investments. It then turns to Chinese-developed industrial parks, documenting their contributions to employment and investment but also persistent constraints, including limited domestic markets, skills gaps, high land and energy costs, and poor coordination between roads, railways, and border logistics. The chapter concludes that stand-alone road construction cannot catalyze growth and advocates for coordinated, multi-modal infrastructure provision, integrating roads, railways, energy, industrial zones, and cross-border logistics.