Iran–Saudi Normalization and the October 7 War: A Butterf ly Effect?

Iran and Saudi Arabia renormalized relations in March 2023 after severing diplomatic ties in early 2016. China hosted this Middle East rapprochement in Beijing, alarming Washington, and leading to a new American approach to the Middle East in 2023 (David Schenker, “ Gulf De-escalation and Hedging in the Shadow of US Retrenchment ,” Caravan, The Hoover Institution, September 12, 2023; Brian Katulis, “Treading Softly on Shifting Sands: An Assessment of Biden’s Middle East Policy Approach 2021-2023,” The Middle East Institute, September 26, 2023). The Biden administration pursued a Saudi–Israeli normalization deal between June and September 2023 that included plans for a new bilateral defense pact between the United States and Saudi Arabia. For the decade prior to 2023, Iran had perceived the United States as looking for a way to reduce its security commitments in the Middle East. But Iran viewed the American push for a Saudi–Israeli normalization agreement as a bid to renew American dominance in the region and isolate Iran. Iran, therefore, sought to sabotage the American effort by endorsing Hamas’ October 7, 2023, terrorist operation against Israel.