The Impact of Japanese Nuclear Wastewater Discharge into the Sea on the Global Economy: Input–Output Model Approach

As the division of work within the world economic system becomes increasingly complex, the impact of disturbing events on the economic system is expanding. Recently, Japan proposed to discharge nuclear wastewater into the sea, which will cause damage to marine fisheries, thereby seriously affecting fisheries and other industries in Japan and other countries and regions around the world. Under four scenarios, from both the static demand-side and output-leside, this paper uses the inoperability input–output model (IIM) to simulate the consequences of nuclear wastewater discharge in Japan, calculates the value of output loss and the rate of output function loss for each industry in each country (region), and lists the highly sensitive countries (regions) and industries. The results show that (1) the discharge of Japanese nuclear wastewater into the sea will cost the world economy more than US$5.6 billion. (2) The top 10 countries (regions) with high sensitivity to nuclear wastewater are Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Russia, Chinese Taiwan, the United States, Canada, China and the United Kingdom. The top 10 countries with low sensitivity to nuclear wastewater are Austria, Hungary, Greece, Czech Republic, Romania, Malta, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Latvia. (3) The top 10 industries with high sensitivity to nuclear wastewater are Fishing and aquaculture, Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, Manufacture of other transport equipment, Mining and quarrying, Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products, Manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather products, Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles, Other professional, scientific and technical activities; veterinary activities, Manufacture of rubber and plastic products, Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding. The top 10 industries with low sensitivity to nuclear wastewater are Public administration and defense; compulsory social security, Sewerage; waste collection, treatment and disposal activities; materials recovery; remediation activities and other waste management services, Real estate activities, Human health and social work activities, Scientific research and development, Repair and installation of machinery and equipment, Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities, Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis, Education, Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies. This study provides an empirical reference for countries worldwide to prevent disasters and make post-disaster emergency decisions in response to the discharge of nuclear wastewater into the sea in Japan.