Forest Sector Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Kashmir Himalayas

The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is highly vulnerable to climate change and its variability leading to the degradation of forest ecosystems. Thus, this study employs an indicator-based approach to assess the forest vulnerability at both block and range levels in the Sindh Forest Division of Jammu and Kashmir, India. Total fourteen indicators were selected from socioeconomic, biophysical and ecologic domain. Systematic sampling belt-transaction methods were used to lay 105 sample plots at various locations. Weights were assigned using the pair wise comparison method (PCM), standardizing indicator values, computing the composite vulnerability index (CVI) along with its visual representation. The Composite Vulnerability Indices developed in this study are based on a set of 14 common indicators. The findings revealed that the Akhal I block had the highest Composite Vulnerability Indices of 0.67 (1st rank), while Harran II had a value of 0.65 (2nd rank), indicating that these blocks were more among the most vulnerable. Conversely, the Chattergul forest block had the lowest Composite Vulnerability Indices of 0.39, making it as the least vulnerable with a (15th rank). The Harran-Shallabugh range had the highest Composite Vulnerability Indicesof 0.62 (1st rank), followed by the Manasbal range with a value of 0.44 (2nd rank) and least vulnerable was Sindh range (0.43). The major drivers for all relative to the case study were high forest fire frequency, highest population density, low aspect profile, a high proportion of BPL households, a greater percentage of area under open forest, the highest drainage density, percent area under slope greater than 30°, low literacy rate, invasive species prevalence, and low values of Important Vital Index and Shannon diversity Index.