Analysis of Driving Factors and Mechanisms of Regional Negative-Carbon Development in China Based on the STIRPAT Model

The development of new power systems has gradually facilitated the low-carbon transition of the power sector, thereby promoting regional zero-carbon and negative-carbon development. Utilizing provincial panel data from China covering the period 2014 to 2022, this study applies the STIRPAT model to identify the key factors influencing regional negative-carbon development and explore their underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that: (1) the top three contributors to reducing carbon intensity are the number of carbon-reduction patents, the share of the tertiary industry, and population size, while per capita GDP is the most significant factor increasing carbon intensity; and (2) population, economic growth, technological innovation, market dynamics, and industrial structure affect crucial dimensions of regional negative-carbon development through distinct pathways. This study offers a theoretical foundation for formulating effective strategies to advance regional negative-carbon development, thereby supporting China’s dual-carbon goals.