Russia’s Resurgence: Recalibrating Power in the Middle East

Russia views itself as a great power with global interests, which explains its foray into the Middle East is no surprise, considering its geographical proximity and history of involvement in the region since the Soviet era. Ever since Putin came to power in Russia around 20 years ago, he has pursued an active diplomacy throughout the Middle East. Russia gained a significant foothold in the Middle East in 2015, when it provided military support to President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, during its bloody civil war. Moscow saw the region as a crucial area for projecting hard power, aiming to counter NATO and re-establish Russia as a global power. Besides, Moscow has important economic interests in the Middle East, since it is a major market for Russian arms, energy, and food grains. The region also serves as a partner for nuclear energy and infrastructure projects. Moscow has been focused squarely on establishing itself as a significant external ally by developing strategic and economic ties with key states of the region, such as Syria, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Libya, and Saudi Arabia. Russia’s strategy of using Syria as a base to expand its influence in the Middle East, project its power, and challenge US regional and global dominance appeared to be a winning strategy, reaping dividends. However, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and the ascension of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, along with the Hamas attack on Israel, followed by the Iran-Israel war, have created a new geopolitical landscape, challenging Russia’s long-term objectives in the region. The shifting dynamics in Syria and the Middle East have forced a reconsideration of strategies among key players in the region, including the Russian Federation. The chapter attempts to briefly trace the history of Russia’s involvement in the Middle East and its resurgence in the region during Putin’s rule. It attempts to analyze the determinants of Russia’s foreign policy in the Middle East, its strategic goals, and other stakes in the region. It also aims to review the challenges and opportunities facing Russia in the Middle East, including the losses, gains, and limitations of its foreign policy in the region. The chapter further aims to explore Moscow’s strategy in dealing with the fresh challenges that has emerged in the region post-Hamas attack. Lastly, it aims to assess the recalibration of power dynamics in the region.