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Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and tornadoes can trigger infectious disease outbreaks due to factors such as the destruction of communal infrastructure, forced migration, environmental changes, inadequate access to clean food and water, increased exposure to pre-existing pathogens, and the introduction of new pathogens. The real-time tracking and analysis of the spread of infectious diseases and the characteristics of seismological disasters are facilitated by the Epidemiological Locational Intelligence System (ELIS), a tool developed by the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Initially created to oversee the COVID-19 pandemic, ELIS’s effectiveness has been demonstrated to depend on efficient information exchange among local entities responsible for collecting, updating, and managing epidemiological data. The system’s ability to promptly recommend preventive actions is enhanced by access to spatial information about population dynamics, environmental conditions such as climate, vegetation, pollution, seismic activity, community infrastructure, and healthcare services. A recent enhancement to ELIS includes a model designed to predict the likelihood and spread of an epidemic in the aftermath of an earthquake. This enhancement involved analyzing statistical data on seismic activity in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as epidemiological data related to infectious diseases, hot spot areas of endemic disease, and immunization rates of vaccinated vaccine-preventable diseases. Based on the model’s forecasts, it provides and establishes a set of preventive and control actions.

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Forecasting and Mitigating Epidemic Spread During Natural Disasters Triggered by Seismic Events

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Mirsada Hukić,
  • Almir Karabegović,
  • Mirzć Ponjavic,
  • Naida Ademović

摘要

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and tornadoes can trigger infectious disease outbreaks due to factors such as the destruction of communal infrastructure, forced migration, environmental changes, inadequate access to clean food and water, increased exposure to pre-existing pathogens, and the introduction of new pathogens. The real-time tracking and analysis of the spread of infectious diseases and the characteristics of seismological disasters are facilitated by the Epidemiological Locational Intelligence System (ELIS), a tool developed by the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Initially created to oversee the COVID-19 pandemic, ELIS’s effectiveness has been demonstrated to depend on efficient information exchange among local entities responsible for collecting, updating, and managing epidemiological data. The system’s ability to promptly recommend preventive actions is enhanced by access to spatial information about population dynamics, environmental conditions such as climate, vegetation, pollution, seismic activity, community infrastructure, and healthcare services. A recent enhancement to ELIS includes a model designed to predict the likelihood and spread of an epidemic in the aftermath of an earthquake. This enhancement involved analyzing statistical data on seismic activity in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as epidemiological data related to infectious diseases, hot spot areas of endemic disease, and immunization rates of vaccinated vaccine-preventable diseases. Based on the model’s forecasts, it provides and establishes a set of preventive and control actions.