Study of the Agricultural Development Based on the Method of Extrapolation (Case Study of Ukraine)

Forecasting the development of agriculture is critical for effective management, especially in the face of climate change and technological innovation. Forecasting the development of agriculture involves the use of contemporary complex research methods based on the interdisciplinary approach of various scientific fields. This question lies, in particular, in the subject-object field of study of human geography as a complex, interdisciplinary science about nature, society, and economics. The authors conducted a thorough analysis of previous studies on human-geographical studies of agricultural development worldwide and found that there is a certain lack of research on the use of different interdisciplinary methods, in particular, the extrapolation method, in forecasting various statistical indicators of agricultural development. The purpose of this article is to apply the extrapolation method to the specific case of Ukraine. The future of agriculture in Ukraine depends on many factors and requires research based on contemporary interdisciplinary approaches and methods. In this study, we applied the extrapolation method, a widely used technique in forecasting, to the agricultural sector of Ukraine. We projected a specific series of indicators, namely the gross harvest of individual crops (corn, wheat, sunflower), into the future. The base period for our analysis was 2000–2021, and the forecast period included 2022–2026. The results of our forecasting indicate a general trend towards an increase in gross harvest in Ukraine during the study period and a rise in indicators in the forecast period.