Russian Provoked Nuclear Disaster, Attack or Accident: Scenarios, Probability and Consequences

Nobody in good faith can rule out the possibility that a nuclear weapon will be used in Ukraine or the possibility of another type of nuclear disaster. But the probability of such a scenario is quite low, as the impact to the war is meaningful, except if there is a (improbable) side effect of such a use in the resolutions and perception about the fight of the Ukrainian public. What we have learnt up to now is that the societal resilience as well as the intangibles of war are showing that Ukraine will not give up. In this situation, accidents can happen, but an event of such kind involving nuclear material could be a rare one with very low probability. The current article explores both nuclear attack, attack at a nuclear power plant or nuclear waste deposit, the probability, and the possible consequences in each case.