The Drivers, Facilitators, and Obstacles of Policy Change
摘要
Chapter 8 develops the theoretical and empirical foundation for the five time-variant conditions used to explain LILSO policy liberalization. Moving beyond the static institutional factors of Part I, this chapter focuses on fluid, macro-structural drivers that fluctuate over time. The author categorizes these conditions into three functional roles: drivers that ignite the reform process, incentives that provide additional impetus, and domestic facilitators that help overcome political barriers. The five conditions are operationalized through complex, often nested, set-theoretic concepts: (1) Assertive Employer Demand (EMPL): A driver combining increased labor demand (high GDP growth and labor shortages) with weak trade union density, assuming that employers are most successful when their demands are economically grounded and politically unchallenged. (2) Positive Spatio-Temporal Interlinkages (PSI): A driver capturing policy diffusion, where liberalization is influenced by similar policy shifts in neighboring democratic states within a two-year window. High (3) Humanitarian Migration Pressures (HUM): An incentive or obstacle based on the proportional size of the refugee and asylum-seeker population, exploring how other migration channels impact LILSO policy-making. (4) Low Impact of Right-Wing Populists (RPOP): A domestic facilitator assessing both the direct (government participation) and indirect (contagion effects on mainstream parties) influence of anti-immigration actors. (5) Complex Migration Policy Mix (MIX): A domestic facilitator examining "policy interaction," where liberalization in LILSO is often traded off against increased restrictiveness in other areas like border control or asylum. By detailing the data collection from sources such as the OECD, World Bank, and UNHCR, and explaining the calibration of these factors into fuzzy sets, Chapter 8 establishes the multidimensional "lenses" through which the subsequent configurational analysis (fsQCA) identifies the specific recipes for policy change.