Seven Key Trends of Transnational Terrorism: The Current Threat Matrix for Europe
摘要
This analytical synthesis, based on findings from the EICTP European Trend Report on Terrorism 2025, identifies seven key trends shaping the evolving landscape of transnational terrorism in Europe. Drawing on foresight-based methodologies and expert assessments, the analysis highlights the growing virtualization of terrorist activity, the strategic adaptation of digital and emerging technologies, and the ideological diversification of extremist milieus. Central attention is given to the increasing relevance of narrative-based “onlife” radicalization, the rise of teenage perpetrators, and the persistent operational shift toward low-tech, decentralized attacks. These developments are contextualized within broader geopolitical disruptions, including the conflict in Gaza. The analysis concludes that terrorism in Europe is staged in a decentralized threat matrix, becoming more diffuse, emotionally driven, and digitally enabled introducing a fifth wave of multidimensional terrorism—requiring adaptive, cross-sectoral counterterrorism responses.