Paper 2: Empirical Study to Estimate the Economic Effects of the Introduction of a Periodical Technical Inspection (Pti) for Motor Vehicles in Punjab (Pakistan)
摘要
Aims The government of Punjab (Pakistan) established a new regime in 2016 for the inspection of road vehicles. The inspection regime covers the testing of the roadworthiness of vehicles, their noise level, and their emissions. All three aspects of testing have further economic benefits that will be analyzed throughout the study. But foremost the aim of the study is to provide an economic impact analysis of the introduction of a periodical technical inspection (PTI) system that acts as a basis for political decision-making Background A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) as method was used in order to assess the economic impact of the introduction of a periodical technical inspection (PTI) in Punjab. With the CBA, the economic benefits and costs can be empirically weighed against each other to provide a precise result for policy makers, such as whether to introduce a new system or not. This is especially important for the region of Punjab since this region has a large population and substantial numbers of cars leading to a high level of fatal car accidents. One of the main reasons for the many fatal accidents is the insufficient vehicle quality due to the lack of control bodies that systematically check the quality of the current vehicle stock. An effective approach to fatalities is the introduction of a systematic inspection body that controls vehicle quality in order to reduce the number of road deaths Objective The objective of this study is to calculate a benefit cost ratio and to determine whether the introduction of PTI as a positive economic impact for the region of Punjab is feasible and will be effective Throughout the analysis cutting edge empirical methodologies are used to provide a structured approach in order to assess as precisely as possible the benefit cost ratio related with the introduction of a PTI system. Methods For the assessment of the benefits and costs, CBA a method used in applied welfare economics used to find out, whether measures are socially desirable. The overall result of the CBA is a benefit-cost ratio (BCR). Ratios greater than one prove that the system implementation is profitable for the society (Boardman, Vining, Weimer & Greenberg, 1996). Therefore, it provides an empirically supported result that can be used throughout the decision-making process in the public sector. Results It is shown that the PTI including an emission test achieves a benefit-cost ratio of 12.45. A benefit-cost-ratio of 10 means that one dollar invested in the PTI results in an economic benefit of 10 dollars in Punjab. The introduction of a PTI system has a positive impact on the economic welfare of Punjab and is therefore social desirable. The empirical results show a high degree of statistical significance (p = 0.001). Due to this, the coefficients of the cause-effect relationships can be interpreted unambiguously. On the one hand, the accident savings of 198 reduced fatalities are US$ 11,616,462. The estimated reduction of 382 injured persons leads to savings of US$ 1,568,874. Furthermore, we have emission savings that amount up to $2,647,966.87 The total benefits are US$ 15,833,302,9. On the other hand, the total amount of inspection fees (for a total of 179,977 vehicles inspected) sums up to US$ 1,271,460. This leads in total to a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 12.45. Conclusion The implementation of PTI has a significant and measurable effect on the reduction of road accidents in Punjab. However, the amount of possible/potential benefits is underestimated because other effects like noise savings could not be considered because of missing data or missing information. But already without considering these variables we have a large BCR, which in other words means that the introduction of PTI is highly favourable for the economic welfare of Punjab.