Countering Biases in Risk Analysis
摘要
Many risk management programs in companies are not as effective as they could or should be. This is due to several overlooked factors, including motivational and cognitive biases. Despite a substantial amount of theoretical and empirical literature, the topic of biases is rarely addressed in ERM. Numerous studies have demonstrated that errors in risk identification and assessment can skew results. Also, decisions drawn from the risk management process may be suboptimal. In the following sections, we discuss some of the most significant biases in risk analysis. We introduce corresponding debiasing strategies.