What Future Does the EU Have?

Have the recurring crises strengthened or weakened the European integration process? The still lingering effects of all crises do not allow for a final judgment. From the ideal case of full integration of all member countries, as envisioned by the six founding states and also demonstrated by themselves, one has soon deviated in the course of EU expansions. Some of the challenges coming from outside (financial crisis, pandemic, Ukraine war) have strengthened the common identity. However, the refugee crisis and Brexit have shown the limits of a unity roof over heterogeneous historical experiences and different current interests. Even though pulling together in the face of the climate crisis would be optimal, one should also consider “second-best solutions” for the further development of the EU. These include multi-layered systems with a core Europe and surrounding country groups, whether in concentric circles or overlapping clubs. This raises the question of where the future external borders of the EU will lie and how the current reordering of global spheres of influence will be reflected in the geopolitical role of the EU.