FVV Fuels Study IV – Transformation of European Mobility to the GHG Neutral Post-Fossil Age

In the new FVV Fuels Study IV altogether 42 technology (energy/fuel – powertrain) pathways (100% scenarios) - which all lead to carbon neutral mobility in 2050 - are compared, with regard to energy demand, total costs, cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. Unlike numerous other studies on the same topic, a holistic cradle-to-grave approach is chosen, that considers all relevant costs and emissions from vehicle production and the setup of a sustainable energy supply system to use and recycling. For this purpose, the emissions caused by the construction of the infrastructure, such as wind turbines, electrolysers or charging stations, were also included. With this approach, the cumulative emissions up to the year 2050 are examined for six different energy sources, seven different powertrain technologies (on three different vehicle efficiency levels) and for two energy sourcing scenarios (domestic and international). This is because valid insights can only be obtained by integrated simulations of the entire energy system. Regardless of which of the 42 technology pathways for new vehicles Europe chooses, the 1.5°C greenhouse gas budget set for Europe will already be exceeded by 2032 due to transport emissions alone, with the already challenging assumed ramp-up speed of carbon neutral technology (determined by the vehicle fleet exchange rate). The reason for this is the dominant share of the existing fleet using fossil fuels, phasing out by 2050, in total emissions. Irrespective of the scenario, this amounts to around 70 percent at an identical rate of introduction of defossilised vehicle technologies and accordingly replacing fossil energy in transportation at the same rate. Without technology options that reduce emissions in the existing fleet, it will not be possible to achieve the ambitious European climate targets.