“Zeitenwende”—also for the European Union? The Ukraine War, the Franco-German Tandem and the Future of the EU

The “turning point” (“Zeitenwende”) speech by Chancellor Olaf Scholz on 27 February 2022 in the German Bundestag in view of the Russian attack on Ukraine and his announcement of an increased military engagement of the Federal Republic of Germany within the Western alliance marked a break with all established foreign and security policy traditions of the Federal Republic of Germany. The extent and consequences of this change, also for Franco-German relations and the European Union (EU), are the focus of this essay. Since the founding of the West German state, all German governments have practised a policy of maximum military restraint, the more so as this was the right lesson to learn from the mistakes of the past, but also taking into account the special geographic and political situation and serving the economic interests of the country. To the disappointment of its allies, German unification has not changed this much: although Germany has always played an important diplomatic role on the international stage, participation in military operations have remained exceptions. In this respect, the question is whether Chancellor Scholz′s speech actually heralds the beginning of a new foreign and security policy culture in the Federal Republic of Germany and thus strengthens European and Western security and defence policies in the face of a profoundly changed international situation or whether it will ultimately fizzle out again, similar to other debates of recent years, due to the persistence of the traditional role of Germany as a “civilian power”.