Green Hydrogen as a Driver for a More Sustainable Aviation Sector: Market Entry Scenarios and Demand Forecasts

The aviation sector is responsible for 2.4 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Based on current growth predictions, air traffic is expected to increase by 3.7 % annually, making the aviation sector one of the largest long-term emitters of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Counteracting this trend is a crucial challenge the aviation sector has set itself with the Flightpath 2050 strategy. While offsetting mechanisms, optimized flight management, and improved propulsion concepts have already led to a slight reduction in emissions, technological innovations in propulsion concepts and energy sources will be necessary to achieve the Flightpath 2050 goal. One promising approach for regional-, short- and medium-range flights is the use of green hydrogen as an alternative energy carrier. Its production from renewable energy sources and subsequent use releases no carbon dioxide emissions. However, it is unknown much hydrogen will be needed for the aviation sector and how this demand will change over time. To this end, this paper develops forecasting approaches for the hydrogen demand of the German aviation sector until 2050. Growth forecasts for the aviation sector until 2050 are developed in the first step. Subsequently, market entry scenarios for hydrogen-based propulsion concepts are developed before determining the hydrogen demand for different flight distances. Based on the growth forecasts, the market entry scenarios, and the hydrogen demand per flight, demand forecasts for green hydrogen until 2050 are developed. Our analyses show that the demand for green hydrogen in the German aviation sector cannot be met with current production capacities. However, green hydrogen is also needed in other sectors for a transformation process towards a low-emission industry, making hydrogen imports mandatory to meet the overall demand.