Conclusions

In this book, I analyzed the extent to which internal migrants and stayers in areas affected by climate change across Peru’s highlands, rainforest, and coastline could meet their needs and how they self-assessed well-being. The former, objective well-being, includes livelihoods, health, education, shelter, social relatedness, among others, while the latter, subjective well-being, encompasses present emotional balance and cognitive satisfaction as well as views of the future. Three characteristic well-being pathways were clustered. First, displaced persons in the coastal zone and trapped people in the highlands experienced a tailspin into severe ill-being. Second, most migrants from the highlands and the trapped people in the rainforest wound up deadlocked in a worsening state of life, while the voluntary stayers in the Andes risked following this path as well. Finally, a small number of migrants from the highlands and the relocatees in the rainforest were able to recover slowly after climate impacts, albeit with taxing and laborious processes. Regarding mechanisms, the analysis shows that well-being impacts of climate (im)mobilities are primarily contingent on the favorability of structural conditions as well as on the nature and impacts of hazards, whereas people’s frequently low levels of agency can moderate the effects only to a limited extent. Transferring these findings beyond Peru, this study cautions that for most poor, undiversified subsistence farmers harmed by severe climate impacts and subjected to serious structural constraints, climate migration and immobility are bound to threaten well-being. In rarer cases when some of these key parameters are relatively favorable, well-being may return to the baseline, stagnate, or rise marginally; however, such recovery or gains tend to be frail. For policy debates, the findings suggest that under prevailing policy and structures, migration does not work as a positive adaptation strategy for many people. The book highlights that moving and staying can be the consequence of, and lead to further, significant loss and damage. Therefore, several actions recommended in this chapter are urgently needed to improve well-being for both movers and stayers. This includes efforts to reduce climate risks; protect and inform stayers; facilitate movement in dignity where needed; as well as safeguard and improve the well-being of migrants. The chapter also discusses the methodological and conceptual implications of the findings and highlights key research needs. Looking ahead, this book cautions that the well-being threats related to climate (im)mobilities could be extensive. Actions taken in this decade will be critical in determining the magnitude of future climate impacts, other shocks, resultant migration and immobility, and their well-being impacts.