Theoretical Framework: Ripeness, Readiness, and Spoilers
摘要
This chapter outlines an integrated theoretical framework to analyze the unfinished peace process between Kosovo and Serbia by investigating the conditions that enable successful negotiations and conflict resolution. It combines insights from ripeness, readiness, and spoiler theories to understand the strategic and psychological dimensions of the conflict. Ripeness theory suggests that parties negotiate only when they face a “mutually hurting stalemate” and perceive a “way out”. Readiness theory refines this by focusing on individual motivations, optimism, and internal political dynamics between “hawks” and “doves”. Additionally, spoiler theory examines how actors actively undermine peace processes to protect their interests and how international “custodians” can manage these disruptions through inducement, socialization, or coercion. This framework aims to move beyond simplistic explanations and attempts to provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between objective conditions and subjective perceptions in the peace process.