Investigating the Phenomenon of Stranded Infrastructure in Africa: Egypt
摘要
This study investigates stranded renewable energy infrastructure in Egypt, analysing how operational inefficiencies, grid limitations, and market constraints affect technical utilization and economic performance. Stranded infrastructure denotes underutilized, economically unviable assets unable to deliver expected returns due to technical, policy, or financial barriers. A mixed-methods framework integrates Capacity Factor (CF), Resource Utilization (Ur), Grid Utilization (Ug), and introduces the Effective Utilization (Ue) parameter (Ur × Ug) which quantifies the share of site potential delivered to the grid after accounting for resource availability and constraints. Results reveal that Egypt’s major wind and solar projects operate above international benchmarks with Gabal El Zeit wind farm demonstrating high CF values (≈51.7%) and Benban Solar Park (CF ≈ 26%) aligning with 20–30% PV and 30–55% wind standards. Most plants achieved Ue above 50%, indicating no stranding though variations reveal localized dispatch inefficiencies varying from plant to plant and with different technologies. Economic loss analysis via Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) and Cost of Energy (COE) demonstrates that reduced utilization increases cost of electricity and limits financial returns which has led to economic losses in the past and could potentially lead to future lower returns if not acted on. Utilizing Merit-order analysis, as a policy tool, confirms renewables as Egypt’s lowest-cost sources, yet curtailed by grid inflexibility. Putting in place policies that prioritize low marginal-cost renewables is a key strategy to prevent curtailment and maximize plant utilization. The study establishes a unified technical–economic framework linking utilization efficiency, cost performance, and policy design, offering a replicable model to identify and mitigate stranded renewable infrastructure in emerging energy systems.