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Energy demand forecasting employs various techniques and models to estimate future energy requirements for a country, region, or industry. Against the backdrop of China’s dual carbon goals and Chongqing’s 14th Five-Year Plan, accurate medium- to long-term energy forecasting has become essential for regional strategic planning. As a major economic hub and clean energy base in western China, Chongqing’s energy demand projections are crucial for supporting both carbon neutrality and regional development. Using 2020 as the base year, this study designed five scenarios (BS, ISU, HGDP, CSU, CS) to project Chongqing’s energy demand from 2021 to 2050. Results indicate a shift toward clean energy dominance, with natural gas as the primary source. Corresponding natural gas demands across scenarios are 68.64, 48.95, 106.88, 110.74, and 3.07 million tons of standard coal. Coal and oil consumption decline significantly, dropping to zero by 2050 under CSU and CS scenarios. Industrial structure upgrading is identified as the most effective measure in curbing energy demand growth. Policy recommendations include accelerating natural gas and shale gas development, enhancing hydro resource utilization, and prioritizing industrial structure optimization.

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Prediction and Countermeasures of Energy Demand in Chongqing Based on Scenario Analysis

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Zhiwei Zhang,
  • Junli Wu,
  • Shenghua Luo,
  • Yaxuan Zhou

摘要

Energy demand forecasting employs various techniques and models to estimate future energy requirements for a country, region, or industry. Against the backdrop of China’s dual carbon goals and Chongqing’s 14th Five-Year Plan, accurate medium- to long-term energy forecasting has become essential for regional strategic planning. As a major economic hub and clean energy base in western China, Chongqing’s energy demand projections are crucial for supporting both carbon neutrality and regional development. Using 2020 as the base year, this study designed five scenarios (BS, ISU, HGDP, CSU, CS) to project Chongqing’s energy demand from 2021 to 2050. Results indicate a shift toward clean energy dominance, with natural gas as the primary source. Corresponding natural gas demands across scenarios are 68.64, 48.95, 106.88, 110.74, and 3.07 million tons of standard coal. Coal and oil consumption decline significantly, dropping to zero by 2050 under CSU and CS scenarios. Industrial structure upgrading is identified as the most effective measure in curbing energy demand growth. Policy recommendations include accelerating natural gas and shale gas development, enhancing hydro resource utilization, and prioritizing industrial structure optimization.