Nowadays, effective management of transportation is important for optimizing both operation processes and costs and improving customer service in company activities. This research proposed two main objectives: forecasting ordering demand and order characteristics in the future and applying forecasting and simulation of location to choose between using third-party logistics (3PL) in transportation and investing in in-house transportation systems for an agricultural supplies manufacturer. This method lets companies find a balance between keeping costs low and keeping control of their operations. However, the solution requires an analysis of customer demand, route optimization, and cost to maintain competitive advantages. Therefore, the authors have built a delivery plan and calculated optimal cost to choose the most suitable option for the company. These issues used historical data, applied simulation including one consolidation point, three warehouses, and 200–300 customer locations, and then forecast purchase demand from January 2025 to December 2029 based on past data. After that, apply the Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP) model to schedule delivery routes and operating costs, then compare two alternatives over a five-year period.