Disturbances that appear in different regions of the ionosphere several hours or days before the onset of relatively strong earthquakes can be considered as possible ionospheric precursors of these earthquakes. In order to identify seismoionospheric disturbances preceding the onset of earthquakes in the Kamchatka region, the paper uses the results of measurements carried out at the ionospheric vertical radio sounding station located in Paratunka ( \(52.97^\circ \) N, \(158.24^\circ \) E) for the period 2016–2023. The appearance of statistically significant deviations from background levels in the following frequency and height parameters of the E and F regions of the ionosphere, as well as features of ordinary wave traces on ionograms during periods of low geomagnetic activity, were considered as possible ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. An analysis of the effectiveness of forecasting anomalies of these ionospheric parameters for earthquakes with magnitudes \(M\ge 5.0\) , \(M\ge 5.5\) and \(M\ge 6.0\) was conducted. The highest forecast efficiency based on the considered complex of ionospheric anomalies was obtained for earthquakes with magnitudes \(M\ge 6.0\) .

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Statistical Analysis of Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding the Occurrence of Earthquakes in the Kamchatka Region

  • Aleksey Pavlov

摘要

Disturbances that appear in different regions of the ionosphere several hours or days before the onset of relatively strong earthquakes can be considered as possible ionospheric precursors of these earthquakes. In order to identify seismoionospheric disturbances preceding the onset of earthquakes in the Kamchatka region, the paper uses the results of measurements carried out at the ionospheric vertical radio sounding station located in Paratunka ( \(52.97^\circ \) N, \(158.24^\circ \) E) for the period 2016–2023. The appearance of statistically significant deviations from background levels in the following frequency and height parameters of the E and F regions of the ionosphere, as well as features of ordinary wave traces on ionograms during periods of low geomagnetic activity, were considered as possible ionospheric precursors of earthquakes. An analysis of the effectiveness of forecasting anomalies of these ionospheric parameters for earthquakes with magnitudes \(M\ge 5.0\) , \(M\ge 5.5\) and \(M\ge 6.0\) was conducted. The highest forecast efficiency based on the considered complex of ionospheric anomalies was obtained for earthquakes with magnitudes \(M\ge 6.0\) .