This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances counterfactual survival modeling via comprehensive multimodal embedding and latent subgroup retrieval. CURE integrates clinical, paraclinical, demographic, and multi-omics information, which are aligned and fused through cross-attention mechanisms. Complex multi-omics signals can be adaptively refined using a mixture-of-experts architecture, emphasizing the most informative omics components. Building upon this representation, CURE implicitly retrieves patient-specific latent subgroups that capture both baseline survival dynamics and treatment-dependent variations. Experimental results on METABRIC and TCGA-LUAD datasets demonstrate that proposed CURE model consistently outperforms strong baselines in survival analysis, evaluated using the Time-dependent Concordance Index ( \(C^{td}\) ) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). These findings highlight the potential of CURE to enhance multimodal understanding and serve as a foundation for future treatment recommendation models. All code and related resources are publicly available to facilitate the reproducibility( https://github.com/L2R-UET/CURE ).

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Counterfactual Understanding via Retrieval-Aware Multimodal Modeling for Time-to-Event Survival Prediction

  • Ha-Anh Hoang Nguyen,
  • Tri-Duc Phan Le,
  • Duc-Hoang Pham,
  • Huy-Son Nguyen,
  • Cam-Van Thi Nguyen,
  • Duc-Trong Le,
  • Hoang-Quynh Le

摘要

This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances counterfactual survival modeling via comprehensive multimodal embedding and latent subgroup retrieval. CURE integrates clinical, paraclinical, demographic, and multi-omics information, which are aligned and fused through cross-attention mechanisms. Complex multi-omics signals can be adaptively refined using a mixture-of-experts architecture, emphasizing the most informative omics components. Building upon this representation, CURE implicitly retrieves patient-specific latent subgroups that capture both baseline survival dynamics and treatment-dependent variations. Experimental results on METABRIC and TCGA-LUAD datasets demonstrate that proposed CURE model consistently outperforms strong baselines in survival analysis, evaluated using the Time-dependent Concordance Index ( \(C^{td}\) ) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). These findings highlight the potential of CURE to enhance multimodal understanding and serve as a foundation for future treatment recommendation models. All code and related resources are publicly available to facilitate the reproducibility( https://github.com/L2R-UET/CURE ).