Risk Mitigation and Sustainability in Oil Supply Networks: A Multi-objective Optimization Approach
摘要
Oil supply chains are a critical infrastructure for both nation’s economies and global energy markets. However, these supply chains face disruptive risks from sudden refinery outages and pipeline capacity losses to geopolitical events that can interrupt oil flows. Simultaneously, stricter environmental regulations, particularly on sulfur emissions, demand cleaner fuel production and operations. This study develops a multi-objective optimization model to enhance the resilience of oil supply chains in the Gulf region while balancing economic and environmental objectives. The model minimizes total supply chain cost and sulfur emissions, and maximizes resilience, under three disruption scenarios: (1) refinery shutdowns, (2) pipeline capacity reductions, and (3) geopolitical supply constraints. The formulation incorporates sulfur emission regulations and broader environmental policies as constraints. Scenario analyses are conducted to evaluate trade-offs among cost efficiency, compliance with sulfur caps, and the ability to sustain supply during disruptions. The results are expected to provide decision-makers with a set of Pareto-optimal strategies that reinforce supply chain resilience against disruptions, ensure regulatory compliance, and manage costs effectively.