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Predictions of peak floods are a worldwide issue. In arid regions, the situation is much worse because of the lack of flood measurements to provide a base for reliable flood predictions. In the current study, we have collected some measured storm (rainfall-runoff) events (161 events) in some watersheds (19 sub-watersheds) in Saudi Arabia. The data is used to develop some empirical equations between the measured peak flow and the field-estimated curve number (CN) of the watershed from rainfall-runoff events and not rely on the NRCS-Table commonly used in the literature. It has been shown that the power and the exponential models have a high coefficient of determination, R2 > 0.8. It has also been shown that the factor of initial abstraction, λ plays an effective role in the best-fitting model. The exponential model at λ = 0.01 which is represented by Eq. (Qp = 2.2841e0.0502CN) is the best since the R2 is the highest (0.97).

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Empirical Equations for Predicting Flood Peaks in Saudi Arid Environment Using NRCS-CN Method

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Amro Elfeki,
  • Mohammed M. Farran,
  • Nassir Al-amri

摘要

Predictions of peak floods are a worldwide issue. In arid regions, the situation is much worse because of the lack of flood measurements to provide a base for reliable flood predictions. In the current study, we have collected some measured storm (rainfall-runoff) events (161 events) in some watersheds (19 sub-watersheds) in Saudi Arabia. The data is used to develop some empirical equations between the measured peak flow and the field-estimated curve number (CN) of the watershed from rainfall-runoff events and not rely on the NRCS-Table commonly used in the literature. It has been shown that the power and the exponential models have a high coefficient of determination, R2 > 0.8. It has also been shown that the factor of initial abstraction, λ plays an effective role in the best-fitting model. The exponential model at λ = 0.01 which is represented by Eq. (Qp = 2.2841e0.0502CN) is the best since the R2 is the highest (0.97).