In the theory of modeling and forecasting transport flows, the law of demand and consumption, reflecting the relationship between these two indicators, is of the same primary importance as in the case of studying the consumer market. The indicator (or volume) of transport supply demonstrates the totality of mobile delivery vehicles that are concentrated in a designated area. The key element of the study is the transport demand indicator, which reflects the total level of need for transportation of goods and passengers along a dedicated transport system using personal, public and freight (including unmanned vehicles) modes of transport. Particularly, the level of demand for passenger transportation in urban agglomerations is quantitatively reflected in the form of an integral (aggregated) indicator of the transport mobility of people. The paper discusses a method for quantitative assessment of transport demand, which depends on a significant number of socio-economic factors. The proposed method is based on the identification of the corresponding function in a fuzzy paradigm.

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Forecasting Transport Demand Using Expert-Fuzzy Methods of Data Analysis

  • Ramin Rzayev,
  • Emil Ahmadov,
  • Inara Rzayeva,
  • Vagif Aliyev

摘要

In the theory of modeling and forecasting transport flows, the law of demand and consumption, reflecting the relationship between these two indicators, is of the same primary importance as in the case of studying the consumer market. The indicator (or volume) of transport supply demonstrates the totality of mobile delivery vehicles that are concentrated in a designated area. The key element of the study is the transport demand indicator, which reflects the total level of need for transportation of goods and passengers along a dedicated transport system using personal, public and freight (including unmanned vehicles) modes of transport. Particularly, the level of demand for passenger transportation in urban agglomerations is quantitatively reflected in the form of an integral (aggregated) indicator of the transport mobility of people. The paper discusses a method for quantitative assessment of transport demand, which depends on a significant number of socio-economic factors. The proposed method is based on the identification of the corresponding function in a fuzzy paradigm.