Clustering Spatiotemporal Patterns of Infrastructure Investment in Ecuador: A Cantonal-Level Analysis (2008–2022)
摘要
A canton-level geo-spatial analysis of public infrastructure expenditure in Ecuador from 2008 to 2022 is presented. Fiscal records, GIS data, and spatial econometric models are utilized to map the magnitude and geographic distribution of investments and to assess spillover effects among neighboring cantons. Temporal spending patterns are clustered via Dynamic Time Warping and K-Means, resulting in four profiles ranging from negligible disbursements to isolated peaks. Budgeted versus executed funds are subsequently grouped into four performance typologies, highlighting regional disparities in execution efficiency. Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) are applied to classify cantons into “High-High,” “High-Low,” “Low-High,” and “Low-Low” clusters, revealing concentrated zones of high investment and persistent gaps in rural and Amazonian areas. Sectoral analysis indicates that public works and capital transfers predominate. Substantial heterogeneity at the canton level is underscored, and the vulnerability of local finances to external shocks—such as declines in oil revenues and the COVID-19 pandemic—is emphasized. Differentiated policy measures aimed at bolstering budget execution and promoting territorial equity are deemed imperative.