The research explores a promising pathway for the sustainable development of rural areas in Central Asia based on the use of climate-smart technologies in agriculture. To this end, regression and trend analyses were conducted using statistics from five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) for the years 2022–2025. As a result, an economic–mathematical econometric model was constructed to determine the extent to which the sustainable development of rural areas in Central Asia depends on the spread of climate-smart technologies in agriculture. The theoretical significance of the model lies in its ability to quantify the impact of GDP carbon intensity on the growth of value-added in agricultural production, assess the effectiveness of regulatory efforts to combat climate change in the agrarian economy of Central Asia, and support the development of its rural territories. Using the model, the research identifies the most promising instrument of state regulation for advancing the dissemination of climate-smart technologies in agriculture: regulatory support and government subsidies for the adoption of climate-smart technologies by agricultural producers. The model also substantiates the cyclical nature of the development of the climate-oriented agrarian economy in Central Asia, showing that reductions in the carbon footprint, occurring as the rural population grows, initiate successive cycles of sustainable development. Each new cycle accelerates the annual growth rate of value added generated in agricultural production, thereby increasing the pace at which rural areas in Central Asia become more populated. A road map for rural development in Central Asia, contingent upon strengthening the climate resilience of the agrarian economy, has been developed. It includes medium-term (to 2029) and long-term (to 2033) forecasts, as well as recommendations for improving state regulation aimed at combating climate change in agriculture.