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This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean over the period 1961–2023, utilizing a suite of meteorological and hydrological Drought Indices (DIs), including Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The results reveal a significant intensification of drought conditions, with the detection of a prolonged multi-year megadrought spanning from 2001 to 2023. Drought duration reached up to 18.7 months in northeastern Syria, while short-term dry spells frequently exceeded 50 days, with the longest event lasting 62 days in 2022. Dry spell intensity increased sharply from 120 in 2020 to 140 in 2022, indicating worsening hydroclimatic stress. Trend analyses using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator indicate statistically significant negative trends in precipitation and moisture availability across all regions and seasons, particularly in the northeast and coastal zones. Pearson correlation analysis reveals a high degree of concordance between short- and long-term drought indices, with coefficients reaching 0.93 between EDI and SPI-3 and 0.76 between EDI and SPEI-3. This strong alignment underscores the robustness of these metrics in capturing drought variability across multiple temporal scales. Furthermore, significant correlations between drought indices and large-scale teleconnection patterns, demonstrate the critical influence of atmospheric circulation on both seasonal precipitation dynamics and the persistence of drought conditions. These findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of Syria’s water and agricultural systems to climate change and atmospheric variability. Immediate implementation of adaptive strategies, including sustainable water management, drought, agriculture, and regional cooperation, is essential to mitigate escalating environmental and socio-economic risks.

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Trends and Future Challenges for Regional Safety in the Middle East: The Case of Growing Drought Crisis in Syria

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Michael Skaf,
  • Shifa Mathbout

摘要

This study provides a comprehensive assessment of drought dynamics in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean over the period 1961–2023, utilizing a suite of meteorological and hydrological Drought Indices (DIs), including Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI), and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The results reveal a significant intensification of drought conditions, with the detection of a prolonged multi-year megadrought spanning from 2001 to 2023. Drought duration reached up to 18.7 months in northeastern Syria, while short-term dry spells frequently exceeded 50 days, with the longest event lasting 62 days in 2022. Dry spell intensity increased sharply from 120 in 2020 to 140 in 2022, indicating worsening hydroclimatic stress. Trend analyses using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator indicate statistically significant negative trends in precipitation and moisture availability across all regions and seasons, particularly in the northeast and coastal zones. Pearson correlation analysis reveals a high degree of concordance between short- and long-term drought indices, with coefficients reaching 0.93 between EDI and SPI-3 and 0.76 between EDI and SPEI-3. This strong alignment underscores the robustness of these metrics in capturing drought variability across multiple temporal scales. Furthermore, significant correlations between drought indices and large-scale teleconnection patterns, demonstrate the critical influence of atmospheric circulation on both seasonal precipitation dynamics and the persistence of drought conditions. These findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of Syria’s water and agricultural systems to climate change and atmospheric variability. Immediate implementation of adaptive strategies, including sustainable water management, drought, agriculture, and regional cooperation, is essential to mitigate escalating environmental and socio-economic risks.