Scholarlink

This work analyzes the stability of a stochastic SIR model with demography, where randomness is introduced by adding white noise to the transmission rate. Using a Mean-Square stability framework, we derive a sufficient condition for the stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and introduce a stochastic basic reproduction number. Numerical simulations confirm that stochasticity alters the epidemic threshold and reduces the number of infections as noise increases, leading to disease extinction even when the deterministic outcome predicts an endemic equilibrium.

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Influence of Noise on the Stability of a Stochastic SIR Model with Demography

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

查看全文
  • Rafael Rodríguez-García,
  • Marta-María Álvarez-Crespo,
  • Antonio Díaz-Longueira,
  • Carlos Cambra,
  • Roberto Casado-Vara

摘要

This work analyzes the stability of a stochastic SIR model with demography, where randomness is introduced by adding white noise to the transmission rate. Using a Mean-Square stability framework, we derive a sufficient condition for the stochastic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and introduce a stochastic basic reproduction number. Numerical simulations confirm that stochasticity alters the epidemic threshold and reduces the number of infections as noise increases, leading to disease extinction even when the deterministic outcome predicts an endemic equilibrium.