Risk Assessment of Wind Power Accidents: Safety and Health Impacts
摘要
This study presents a spatially resolved risk assessment of onshore wind power accidents in Europe from 2000 to 2023. A harmonized dataset of 1244 accidents was compiled from publicly available information sources, serving as the basis for estimating human health impacts. First, normalized risk indicators (i.e., fatality rates) were calculated for different country groups. Second, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were used as a composite indicator of fatalities, injuries, and disamenities. The total DALY comprised the sum of Years of Life Lost (YLL), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years with Anxiety Disorder (YAD). A lognormal Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) was developed to estimate DALY rates for individual countries (i.e., means and 95% credible intervals). In a second step, DALY rates were downscaled to the NUTS2 level using a capacity-based approach, and a risk map was generated for the EU 27, EFTA, UK, and candidate countries. The developed framework advances comparative risk assessment by integrating DALY metrics and geographic disaggregation, providing a robust empirical foundation for targeted safety interventions, policy formulation, and transparent stakeholder dialogue in the rapidly growing wind-energy sector.