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This study presents a comprehensive Social Network Analysis (SNA) of Al-Qaeda and its affiliates’ terrorist activities from 2000 to 2020, utilizing data from RAND, GTD, NCTC, and UN reports [7–10]. The constructed network, based on group-to-leader and group-to-country interactions, is analyzed using degree, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. Al-Qaeda, AQAP, and AQIM emerge as central hubs, with “Unknown” and ISIS-affiliated groups also ranking high in influence. A bipartite network links perpetrator groups to countries, and its projections uncover clusters of nations with shared threats and overlapping operational zones among groups. Temporal analysis reveals shifting centrality over time, identifying years of peak influence for specific groups and showing how network structures evolve in response to geopolitical events and counterterrorism measures. Link prediction using the Adamic/Adar index highlights likely future alliances between both countries and groups that currently lack direct connections. Geospatial analysis, despite the lack of coordinate-level data, reveals operational hotspots in regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, aligning with centrality and projection findings. The integrated results reinforce the decentralized yet resilient structure of the network and offer actionable insights for intelligence and counterterrorism strategy.

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Mapping the Terror: A Social Network Analysis of Al-Qaeda and its Affiliates’ Operations

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Sarthak Sahu,
  • Shivani Singh,
  • Payal

摘要

This study presents a comprehensive Social Network Analysis (SNA) of Al-Qaeda and its affiliates’ terrorist activities from 2000 to 2020, utilizing data from RAND, GTD, NCTC, and UN reports [7–10]. The constructed network, based on group-to-leader and group-to-country interactions, is analyzed using degree, betweenness, closeness, and eigenvector centrality. Al-Qaeda, AQAP, and AQIM emerge as central hubs, with “Unknown” and ISIS-affiliated groups also ranking high in influence. A bipartite network links perpetrator groups to countries, and its projections uncover clusters of nations with shared threats and overlapping operational zones among groups. Temporal analysis reveals shifting centrality over time, identifying years of peak influence for specific groups and showing how network structures evolve in response to geopolitical events and counterterrorism measures. Link prediction using the Adamic/Adar index highlights likely future alliances between both countries and groups that currently lack direct connections. Geospatial analysis, despite the lack of coordinate-level data, reveals operational hotspots in regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, aligning with centrality and projection findings. The integrated results reinforce the decentralized yet resilient structure of the network and offer actionable insights for intelligence and counterterrorism strategy.