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Climate change is strongly affecting natural and urban watersheds worldwide; hence future Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) predictions play a key role in flood hazard analysis and management. In this context, Northern Iran is one of the most vulnerable areas of the country due to its Mediterranean climate, due to high AMDR (mm) variability. This research analyzed the variations in future flood mapping predictions over Talar River at Shirgah City (Northern Iran) by applying the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for different future periods. Daily rainfall data of six synoptic stations were downscaled through the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). To simulate Talar Watershed behaviour in the current and future decades, a “mixed” hydrological and hydraulic model was calibrated and then validated using experimental datasets. The hydrological model was obtained using a typical top-down approach, while 2D simulations in unsteady inflow conditions were considered in the hydraulic model. AMDR (mm) will reduce within Talar Watershed, especially at Semnan and Dowshan Tappeh stations. Also, it was possible to observe that RCP 4.5 (2006–2040) combination generates the lowest floods, while RCP 4.5 (2006–2100) produces the most impacting floods on the examined study area.

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Climate Change Effects on Flood Mapping Analysis of Talar Watershed (Northern Iran) using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2)

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Sajjad Mirzaei,
  • Mehdi Vafakhah,
  • Giuseppe Francesco Cesare Lama,
  • Giovanni Battista Chirico,
  • Stefano Papirio

摘要

Climate change is strongly affecting natural and urban watersheds worldwide; hence future Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) predictions play a key role in flood hazard analysis and management. In this context, Northern Iran is one of the most vulnerable areas of the country due to its Mediterranean climate, due to high AMDR (mm) variability. This research analyzed the variations in future flood mapping predictions over Talar River at Shirgah City (Northern Iran) by applying the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for different future periods. Daily rainfall data of six synoptic stations were downscaled through the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). To simulate Talar Watershed behaviour in the current and future decades, a “mixed” hydrological and hydraulic model was calibrated and then validated using experimental datasets. The hydrological model was obtained using a typical top-down approach, while 2D simulations in unsteady inflow conditions were considered in the hydraulic model. AMDR (mm) will reduce within Talar Watershed, especially at Semnan and Dowshan Tappeh stations. Also, it was possible to observe that RCP 4.5 (2006–2040) combination generates the lowest floods, while RCP 4.5 (2006–2100) produces the most impacting floods on the examined study area.