This study focuses on the typical arid oasis city of Shihezi in Xinjiang, China. Based on multi-source meteorological and remote sensing data from 1961 to 2023, it systematically evaluates the regional climate change characteristics and its chain effects on the agricultural system. By integrating methods such as time series trend analysis, drought indices (SPI/PDSI), NDVI, and surface temperature inversion, a “climate warming - extreme events - agricultural response” coupling framework is constructed. The results show that the region is experiencing significant winter warming amplification effects, frequent extreme high-temperature events, and a trend of precipitation spatial and temporal distribution becoming more polarized. Additionally, the ≥ 10 ℃ accumulated temperature has rapidly increased and surpassed the critical point for stable cotton yield. The study has three main innovations: first, it is the first to quantitatively separate the relative contributions of climate factors and human activities to oasis expansion, with human activities accounting for 76%; second, it establishes a “vegetation - surface temperature - water resources - crop structure” collaborative regulation mechanism to address the dual pressures of groundwater over-extraction and soil salinization; third, based on historical drought analogs and the GLOWA model, it proposes an agricultural adaptation boundary based on crop thermal threshold responses. The study ultimately forms a “water-carbon-biology” collaborative management pathway, balancing ecological resilience and food security, providing theoretical support and policy recommendations for the sustainable transformation of agriculture in arid regions under the background of climate variability.