Dataflow for Predicting Stone Degradation in Built Heritage up to 2100
摘要
Natural stone used in built heritage is affected by weathering due to outdoors exposure. In the context of climate change, it is crucial to assess how kinetics of this weathering will evolve. This paper proposes a complete dataflow to project the evolution of humidity and temperature, with the aim of anticipating the microclimates to which monuments will be exposed from now until 2100. The study takes the Saint-Remi Basilica in Reims (France) as a case study and relies on three main sources: (i) in situ measurements collected on the monument between 2018 and 2019 using sensors recording temperature and humidity, (ii) ERA5 reanalysis data used as local climate data for the area surrounding the monument, and (iii) climate projections provided by the DRIAS platform (Météo-France), covering different climate scenarios up to 2100. The proposed dataflow constitutes a reproducible workflow linking data acquisition and preprocessing, the selection of prediction algorithms, the integration of climate scenarios, and the identification of microclimates. This allows for the systematic assessment of environmental dynamics likely to affect the alteration of heritage materials. This dataflow focuses on temperature and humidity, as these are the variables recorded by the sensors deployed on the monument. These two factors are the most critical for the deterioration of stones, as they directly influence moisture absorption, thermal expansion, and other physical and chemical mechanisms that lead to material alteration.